Analytics Firm Projects GTA 6 Could Sell 37–51 Million Copies in Launch Week

Grand Theft Auto VI has notched what analytics firm Newzoo describes as 'the strongest pre-order campaign on record,' with the company projecting the game will sell between 37 and 51 million copies during its launch week in November. The analysis, published on July 16, draws on digital pre-order spending data gathered from the United States and the five largest European markets during the final week of June, which Newzoo then used to extrapolate a global figure of approximately $260 million in the opening week of pre-orders alone. The firm was careful to note that this does not support widely circulated social media claims that GTA 6 has already done a billion dollars in pre-orders — the $260 million figure reflects actual measured spending, not projections.

To arrive at their launch-week forecast, Newzoo applied three established sales-curve models — designed for new IPs, uncertain sequels, and proven sequels respectively — to the pre-order baseline. Because GTA 6 sits firmly in the proven-sequel category, the firm used its historical data suggesting first-week pre-orders represent roughly 5.8 percent of total launch-week sales. Running that ratio against the global pre-order estimate produces the 37-to-51 million unit range, translating to somewhere between $3.3 billion and $4.5 billion in launch-week revenue at the game's $79.99 standard price point.

To put those numbers in context: GTA 5's opening week was approximately 11.2 million units — a record at the time. If Newzoo's projections hold even at the low end, GTA 6 would more than triple that benchmark, making it by a wide margin the largest entertainment launch in history. The firm used GTA 5's global player distribution as its baseline for extrapolating US and European data to worldwide figures, acknowledging that the approach introduces some uncertainty but describing the methodology as the most reliable available given current data.

Rockstar Games has not commented on the pre-order figures, and Take-Two Interactive — GTA 6's publisher — is expected to provide its own data update during its anticipated August earnings call. The game launches November 19, 2026 on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S, with digital pre-loading beginning November 12.